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The Reform UK leader depicts his political party as a distinct phenomenon that has exploded on to the global stage, its rapid ascent an remarkable epochal event. However this week, in every one of the continent's major countries and from India and Southeast Asia to the US and South America, hard-right, anti-immigrant, anti-globalisation parties like his are also ahead in the opinion polls.

During recent Czech voting, the conservative, pro-Putin populist Andrej Babiš overthrew the head of government Petr Fiala. National Rally, which has just brought down yet another French prime minister, is leading the polls for both the French presidency and parliament. In the German nation, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is currently the leading party. A Hungarian political force, Robert Fico’s pro-Russian Slovakian coalition and the Italian political group are already in power, while the Freedom party of Austria (FPÖ), the Dutch PVV and Belgium’s Vlaams Belang – all staunch nationalist groups – are part of an international coalition of anti-internationalists, motivated by right-wing influencers such as a well-known figure, seeking to dethrone the international rule of law, diminish fundamental freedoms and undermine international collaboration.

Rise of Populist Nationalism

The populist nationalist surge reveals a new and unavoidable truth that supporters of democracy ignore at great risk: an authoritarian ethnic nationalism – once thought toppled with the Berlin Wall – has supplanted neoliberalism as the leading belief system of our age, giving us a world of priorities: “America first”, “Indian focus”, “Chinese emphasis”, “Russia first”, “group priority” and often “exclusive group focus” regimes. It is this nationalist sentiment that helps explain why the world is now composed of 91 autocracies and only 88 democracies, and ethnic nationalism is the driver behind the violations of international human rights law not just by Russia in Ukraine but in almost every one of the world’s 59 cross-border conflicts and civil wars.

Understanding the Underlying Forces

Crucial to grasp the root causes, widespread globally, that have fuelled this recent nationalist era. It starts with a broadly shared perception that a globalisation that was open but not inclusive has been a unregulated system that has been unjust to all.

Over the past ten years, leaders have not only been slow to respond to the millions who feel left out and left behind, but also to the changing balance of world economic influence, transitioning from a unipolar world once led by the United States to a multipolar world of rival major nations, and from a system of international law to a might-makes-right approach. The ethnic nationalism that this has provoked means free trade is being replaced by trade barriers. Where market forces used to drive politics, the nationalist agendas is now driving financial choices, and already over a hundred nations are running protectionist strategies characterized by bringing production home and friend-shoring and by bans on cross-border trade, foreign funding and knowledge sharing, lowering international cooperation to its lowest ebb since the post-war period.

Hope in Global Public Sentiment

But all is not lost. The cement is still wet, and even as it hardens we can see optimism in the pragmatism of the world's population. In a recent survey for a major foundation, of 36,000 people in dozens of nations we find a clear majority are more resistant to an divisive nationalist agenda and more inclined to embrace global teamwork than many of the leaders who rule over them.

Across the world there is, maybe unexpectedly, only a limited number of staunch global cooperation opponents representing 16.5% of the world's people (even if 25% in today’s US) who either feel peaceful living between diverse communities is impossible or have a zero-sum mindset that if they or their country do well, it has to be at the expense of others doing badly.

However there are another 21% at the other end, whom we might call committed internationalists, who either still see cooperation across borders through free commerce as a positive sum win-win, or are what an influential thinker calls “rooted cosmopolitans”.

Worldwide Public Position

The vast majority of the global public are moderate in views: not narrow, inward-looking nationalists, as “America first” ideology would suggest, or fully global citizens. They are patriotic but don’t see the world as in a permanent conflict between the “us” and the “them”, adversaries permanently set apart from each other in an irreconcilable gap.

Are most moderates favor a obligation-light or a dutiful world? Are they willing to accept responsibilities beyond their garden gate or community boundaries? Affirmative, under certain conditions. A first group, about a fifth, will support aid efforts to alleviate hardship and are ready to act out of selflessness, backing emergency help for affected areas. Those we might call “charitable” cooperation advocates feel the pain of others and have faith in something bigger than themselves.

Another segment comprising 22% are practical cooperators who want to know that any taxes paid for international development are used effectively. And there is a third group, roughly a fifth, personally motivated collaborators, who will endorse teamwork if they can see that it advantages them and their communities, whether it be through guaranteeing them basic necessities or peace and security.

Forging a Collaborative Consensus

Thus a definite majority can be built not just for humanitarian aid if money is well spent but also for international measures to deal with global problems, like environmental emergency and disease control, as long as this case is presented on grounds of wise personal benefit, and if we stress the reciprocal benefits that benefit them and their own country. And thus for those who have long wondered whether we work together from necessity or if we have a need to cooperate, the response is both.

And this openness to work internationally shows how we can reverse the xenophobic tide: we can defeat current pessimistic, inward-looking and often forceful and controlling nationalism that demonises newcomers, foreigners and “different groups” as long as we advocate for a optimistic, globally engaged and inclusive patriotism that responds to people’s desire to belong and connects to their immediate concerns.

Tackling Key Issues

And while in-depth polls tell us that across the Western nations, illegal immigration is currently the top concern – and it's clear that it must promptly be brought under control – the public sentiment data also tell us that the people are even more concerned about what is happening in their personal circumstances and within their own local communities. Last month, a prominent leader spoke movingly about how what’s good about Britain can drive out what’s bad, doing so precisely because in most western countries, “broken” and “in decline” are the words people have for years most frequently used when asked about both our financial system and community.

But as the leader also reminded us, the far right is more interested in exploiting grievances than ending them. Nigel Farage hailed a disastrous mini-budget as “the best Conservative budget” since 1986. But he would also implement a similar plan – what was intended – the biggest ever cuts in public services. Reform’s plan to reduce public spending by a huge sum would not repair downtrodden communities but damage them, turn citizen against citizen and destroy any sense of unity. Under a far-right government, you will not be able to afford to be sick, impaired, needy or vulnerable. Every day from now on, and in every electoral district, the party should be asked which medical facility, which school and which government service will be the first to be reduced or shut down.

Risks and Solutions

“This ideology” is economic theory at its most inhumane, more destructive even than monetary policy, and vindictive far beyond austerity. What the people are indicating all over the Western world is that they want their leaders to rebuild our economies and our civic societies. “The party” and its global allies should be revealed day after day for plans that would harm both. And for those of us who believe our greatest achievements could be ahead of us, we can go beyond pointing out the party's contradictions by setting out a case for a improved nation that resonates not just to idealists, but to pragmatists, to personal benefit, and to the daily kindness of the nation's citizens.